Indian Foreign Policy Could Change After 19th Chinese Party Congress

KOCHI:
“India’s foreign policy could possibly see some major overhauls after the 19th Chinese Party Congress,” says Muraleedharan Nair, Former Indian Consul in China.
“It is most likely that Xi Jinping will have his ideological thoughts etched into the Party constitution alongside his name, an honour accorded only to Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping in the past,” he added.
The former consul, also an authority on Chinese matters, was delivering a talk on “Chasing the Chinese Dream: Xi Jinping at the 19th Party Congress” on Tuesday, at Centre for Public Policy Research, a Kochi based think-tank that organized the talk. Almost 3000 party members of the Communist Party of China (CCP) will enter the People’s Hall on Wednesday where the 19th Congress of the CCP will begin.
The event which will reveal China’s path, at least for the next five years, has been the centre of global attention for the past week. Major policy decisions including China’s global role, a shift from manufacturing to the service sector, and possibly, a third term for the Xi Jinping is also on the cards.
“The Chinese are eying to be a Germany and sees itself churning out high-value exports that incorporate the latest technology, but the country is haunted by debt,” Nair notices, pointing out that the debt to GDP ratio of the country is over 305%.
Other than obvious concerns of the Chinese economy, one key development to watch out for is whether Jinping will accede to precedent or aims to come out as a revolutionary within the party. “The Politburo Standing Committee doesn’t allow members that are above the age of 67 and it is highly likely that all members of the powerful Politburo Standing Committee will be replaced, except one – Wang Qishan who heads the Central Inspection for Discipline Inspection,” said Nair.
According to Nair, Wang Qishan, the architect of the Chinese anti-corruption campaigns will have to exit the Politburo as he is 69; but if Jinping chooses to retain the powerful and ideological figure of Jinping’s China, he will have to turn his head on precedent- which signal the world that Jinping is a leader who can supersede precedent, if necessary – heating up the debate whether Jinping would announce a successor or opt for a second term as President.
Described as a ‘core leader’ by party members, Xi Jinping is considered a successor of Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping. On answering whether what it means to regional and foreign powers, Nair said that India and the US would have to change their foreign policies. Nair added that the Congress is also likely to address the acute issues of capacity cuts, environmental issues, promoting soft power. However, Nair points out that most of these are speculations and that when it comes to China, no can be an expert.