As 2016 US Presidential campaign enters its final days, CPPR–Centre for Strategic Studies conducted an opinion poll among college students in Kochi on the prospective outcome of 2016 US Presidential Election.
The survey was conducted among the students of Maharaja’s College, Sacred Heart College, Bharata Mata College and St. Albert’s College. The opinion poll that used 200 samples was conducted with the objective
Who will win the 2016 US Presidential Election?
Majority (70%) of the students voted in favour of Democratic Party candidate Hillary Clinton, forecasting her win in the election. About 24% were in favour of Republican Party candidate Donald Trump, while the rest 6% did not have an opinion. Clinton’s experience in politics and her calm demeanour could be the determining factors, as opposed to Trump’s unpredictable temperament.
Rating the US Presidential Candidates
The 2016 campaign was noted for its polarised nature. In most cases, personal attacks subsumed serious policy issues. In terms of rating the Presidential candidates, the response was mixed. About 23% and 28% of the students deemed the candidates good and satisfactory, respectively; while 39 % rated them as moderate and 10% as worse.
Factors that could Play a Major Role in the Electoral Outcom
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In terms of identifying the influential factors that could play a crucial role in determining the 2016 electoral outcome, national security and terrorism (37%) and foreign policy (28%) received the highest votes.
The pressing domestic concerns in the US garnered a lesser share of votes, with 19% for economy and 13% for immigration. This is a reversal of the ground reality in the US, where the electorate gives more priority to domestic issues than foreign policy and related issues.
Rating the Obama Presidency
Majority of the students (65%) held a good opinion of the Obama Presidency. This could be on account of the widely popular image of Barack Obama, in spite of serving two terms at the White House. The Democratic Party candidate Hillary Clinton has tactfully employed this goodwill and popularity while campaigning in swing states to garner maximum support from the masses. About 20% evaluated the Obama Presidency to be moderate and 11% said it was satisfactory. Only a minuscule of them (2%) voiced their disproval.
Preferred Presidential Candidate for India
Going by the popular mood, majority of the students (50%) felt Hillary Clinton as the best bid for securing Indian interests. Yet, the support for anti-establishment fervour on which Donald Trump built his Presidential bid, was reflected with 22% favouring Trump.
Evaluating Indo–US relations in the past, a Republican government would be beneficial for India, especially in terms of delivering the promises (2005 Indo-US civilian nuclear deal and the 2008 NSG waiver are significant achievements in this regard). Yet, the personal camaraderie established between the former UPA and the ruling BJP governments with the Obama administration could be reflective of the support for Hillary. The rest 28% was not in a position to identify the preferred candidate for India.
Immediate Challenges to the New President
In terms of identifying the immediate challenges that the new US President would face, around 45% voted for national security and terrorism. Other issues that ranked high among immediate challenges are foreign policy (34%) and domestic economy (17%).
